The achievement of China’s carbon neutrality is crucial for the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and must involve the implementation of various mitigation policies. However, these efforts are hindered by poor knowledge of the interactions between policies. Here we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China (CEEGE model) and create a policy portfolio area of 1,295 scenarios covering four major mitigation strategies (carbon pricing, energy efficiency, renewable energy and electrification of end uses). When the interactions between mitigation policies are considered, the percentage of scenarios in which the carbon neutrality target is reached by 2060 decreases by 84%, with the years in which these scenarios are achieved being delayed by 5–6 years. Only the combinations with renewable energy and electrification of end uses generate synergetic effects on both economic and mitigation impacts. Our work can inform the formulation of more efficient mitigation policy portfolios by emphasizing policy interactions.
主要创新点：
该研究运用CEEGE模型，构建1295个涵盖碳定价、能源效率等四种减排策略的情景，对比实际同时实施与理想简单叠加假设，发现政策相互作用使中国 2060 年前实现碳中和的情景比例下降84%、时间推迟5-6年，且仅可再生能源与终端用能电气化组合有双重协同效应，碳定价与可再生能源组合权衡效应最大，为政策制定提供参考。
原文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02237-2
